Friday, February 27, 2009

State of the Wireless Union

Since this has been a week of 'revelations' for so many varied, great things (the Obamanator's first big TV gig, 3GSM, new Banks going under, CA running out of water, new BSG, etc.) I thought it wonderfully appropriate that we check in with what is a major story, Wireless. Wireless in America and Europe really is one of the only FEW technology related industries thats continuing to forge ahead in the Financialcopolypse churning (pun intended!) out large size profits.

But wait, you exclaim! Mike, that cant be right, especially about the part involving America. Isnt Sprint, well, Fucked? No. And Yes is the answer and I know that kind of seems like a sell-out answer to a super relevant topic, post and question. But if you hang in here with me, youll see that really, its not.

State of the Wireless Union, America Style, Bitches...
Okay, as you can see by the epically stunning fantastic photo located to my above top right, there sits the only "4G" Wi-MAX card in California. Cool, right? I think so! Except for the you know, nagging details, like, umm... There is no Fraking 4G network in CA for it to run on. Timeframe? Lets just say, according to my source (full disclaimer: these are my opines only of what we had in a casual conversation and I can not, seriously, for her/his NDC overlords have direct quotes) you will be waiting until end of 2010, likely 2011! Now, for a company that has three or four different names and what amounts to what seems like the tail wagging the dog, this is not a good thing. Sprint PCS, neigh Sprint-Nextel, neigh the new SPRINT, neigh Sprint, neigh ZXOHM, neigh Clearwire, neigh Clear (like the steroids?) This company in my professional opinion is in very deep shit. They are hugely unprofitable and have a significant debt to income ratio along with accrued debt through various lame ass stupid fucking mergers that make no sense to the common man. And oh yeah, Dan Hessee: YOUR STUPID BLACK AND WHITE "VALUE" COMMERCIALS SUCK. It doesn't take Veronica Belmont in a segment with the under rated Patrick Norton on Texzilla to let you know that the value proposition being bandied about by Sprint is utter bullshit. Ive analyzed all the majors and Sprint with their 'new' pricing really is average compared to T-Mobile and AT&T's 3G data solutions.

To summarize a lot of information that could be disseminated into a thesis, lets just keep it simple. AT&T has tons of money and a huge infrastructure and really is poised for a BIG leap in 3G coverage and speeds this year. Verizon markets well, but in reality on the DATA side, no so quick. This is due to their legacy Airtouch/Pacific Telesis roots. T-Mobile, give these guys credit. It is the only foreign company in the history of the USA to be granted the spectrum, access and infrastructure to build out the AWS 3G network. And its a good one. Small, but they WILL get there. Right now, T-Mobile is leading the way in value, technology, handsets and customer service. That leaves us with Sprint-Nextel. They couldn't sell the 35 year old TDMA iDen network that Motorola built and maintains (Another company about to go under) So now they are stuck with it. So what are their plans to stop 1.8 MILLION post-paid, profitable customers from leaving every quarter, when they have been working on IEEE 802.16 for three years?

"Well, we are live in Baltimore. Its real. Its coming to Portland in a few months. Then a few others, later this year..." For the uninitiated that means more Port cities except for big ones like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Because they would get crucified once people use this "4G" service and realize they are getting the same speeds from AT&T's 3.6/7.4 HSUPA network. And that release is already covering a Nationwide footprint.

Next post, more on Sprint, their roadmap, devices and all things Google (hint: NONE) and Palm related.

mgalli.mp
www.michaelgalli.net